Trump Rides a Market Wave, but Business Looks for Results

The market impact of the Trump presidency is based so far on prospects — with details and congressional dynamics left to be sorted out — rather than accomplishments.

But plenty of other factors are providing a tailwind for traders, including unexpectedly strong earnings reports from blue-chip companies like Caterpillar and McDonald’s and the receding chances that French voters will turn their backs on Europe.

Technology giants like Apple, Facebook and Amazon have shown robust growth, lifting the Nasdaq index past 6,000 for the first time on Tuesday, a 26 percent gain from a year ago.

Blair Effron, a founder of Centerview Partners, a prominent independent investment bank on Wall Street, said he believed that beyond any immediate policy shift in Washington, investors had taken their cue from signs of healthier growth globally.

“Europe and emerging markets are doing better,” Mr. Effron said, “and there is an underpinning of global stability and growth that are having much more of an impact than people think.”

Not all the signals domestically are coming in strong, however. The government’s initial report on the economy’s first-quarter performance is due Friday, and it is expected to be weak.

And even if Mr. Trump manages to get Congress to pass a tax overhaul, and corporate profits then boom, that will not necessarily translate into better overall economic performance, warned Diane Swonk, a veteran independent economist in Chicago.

“We have to distinguish between pro-profit and pro-growth policies,” she said. “A pro-profit approach increases the share of the pie going to corporate earnings and shareholders. Pro-growth policies increase the size of the pie.”

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Shoppers last month in Herald Square. “A 15 percent tax rate would be a huge win for our members,” said David French, of the National Federation of Retailers.

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